In a scene from “The West Wing,” the cast discussed the meaning of the saying, “post hoc ergo procter hoc” (which is Latin for “after this, therefore because of this”).
It is pointed out in the scene that the saying is hardly ever true. But it may apply in the case of the U.S. economy.
U.S. retail sales increased further in April but, according to a report from Reuters, some of the rise in receipts was likely due to higher inflation as the war with Iran boosted prices of energy products and other commodities.
According to figures released by the Commerce Department, retail sales rose 0.5% last month after a downwardly revised 1.6% jump in March. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales, which are mostly goods and are not adjusted for inflation, gaining 0.5% after a previously reported 1.7% increase in March.
The U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran is driving up inflation. The government reported this week that consumer prices increased strongly for a second straight month in April, with the annual rate posting its largest gain in three years.
Gasoline prices rose 12.3% in April, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed, according to Reuters.
Soaring gasoline prices have yet to pull spending away from other areas, thanks to larger tax refunds this year. The average tax refund was up $323 through April 25 compared to the same period in 2025, Internal Revenue Service data showed, Reuters pointed out.
Economists at PNC Financial said an analysis of internal data showed “consumers are drawing down tax refunds more rapidly than last year, particularly among lower-income households,” adding they were seeing “less of those refunds being used towards paying down credit card and other debt,” according to the news agency.
