While Americans are paying more at the gas pump, their food may also be taking a bigger slice of their budgetary pie.
According to a report from Bloomberg, factors including bad weather, tariffs and a dwindling cattle herd are already pushing up grocery prices at an above-average pace. In April, for instance, they rose by the most in nearly four years, the outlet reported. Economists say the impact of the Iran war and a potential El Niño weather pattern will only add to pressures into 2027.
The hit to U.S. household finances from higher grocery bills is set to intensify just ahead of the November midterm elections, Bloomberg wrote, amplifying affordability as a defining issue. And to a greater extent than the surge in gas prices, the slower-moving food shock will be difficult to reverse quickly because the size of autumn harvests is determined by planting decisions made in the spring.
“It’s going to be a challenging year,” Ricky Volpe, an agribusiness professor at California Polytechnic State University who previously worked at the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service, told Bloomberg. “Food is going to become less affordable, and consumers should be prepared for it.”
The latest USDA food price outlook, published Friday, predicted a 3.2% advance in grocery prices this year, while Volpe said he expects inflation more on the order of 4% to 4.5%.
Outsize price increases so far in 2026 have reflected a mix of bad luck, trade policy and slower-moving pressures linked to climate change. The weather in particular has not been kind to American farmers, who have endured outbursts of record-breaking heat, historic cold, ping-pong size hail and wildfires.
According to Bloomberg, the U.S. saw its warmest-ever start to the year, with temperatures running about 6 degrees above average through the end of April, according to the National Centers for Environmental Information. The early heat prompted some domestic crops to begin blossoming weeks ahead of schedule instead of remaining dormant throughout the winter, leaving them exposed to subsequent frosts, according to Brad Rippey, a USDA meteorologist.
Beef prices, among the most politically sensitive in the U.S., rose to a record in April thanks to the smallest cattle herd in 75 years, squeezed by drought and high production costs.
Tomato prices, meanwhile, surged 33% over the last two months after two winter storms brought widespread damage during the peak of the growing season in Florida — while shipments from Mexico were declining following the Trump administration’s imposition of duties on imports.
Consumers are already worn out because prices have continued to climb even though the rate of food inflation has come down, Andrew Harig, a vice president with the trade group FMI, the Food Industry Association, told Bloomberg.
At the same time, household debt is rising, the personal saving rate is falling, and real average hourly earnings fell in the 12 months through April for the first time in three years. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York published data Wednesday indicating a “meaningful” increase in measures of food insecurity between October 2025 and February 2026.
“Lots of people, I think, still look at their pre-COVID grocery bill in 2019, early 2020 and say, ‘Wow, I’m paying significantly more,’” Harig said. “And so they’re feeling that stretch.”
