By Herb Greenberg
Nov. 17, 2011
“Moneyball” is a story of finding potential in unlikely places. It’s a true story based on how Oakland A’s General Manager Billy Beane, determined to win the World Series but limited by salary constraints, looked for the potential in the players other teams had overlooked.
Conventional baseball wisdom assumed that stolen bases, RBIs and batting averages were indicative of success. But Beane had a different idea. He wanted to use statistical data to analyze and place value on the players he would pick for his team. He believed that on-base percentage and slugging percentage were better indicators of offensive success. The Oakland A’s became convinced that finding players with these qualities would cost the team less to sign than high-priced players who had historically valued qualities such as speed and contact. Beane’s approach flew in the face of what many baseball scouts and executives believed about building a team with a competitive edge.
According to Joe McIllvaine, former GM of the New York Mets, picking the right player is all about the individual’s make up – who the person is at his core. “As a professional sports team, you’re always looking to find an edge. The draft comes down to thousands of players. And when you’re asking, ‘who are we going to pick, who is the best one here,’ of course you talk about talent, eyesight, coordination and lots of other factors. But the most important one is makeup. I asked major-league players, Craig Biggio, Tony Gwynn, Darryl Strawberry and Keith Hernandez – ‘What percentage of the game at the major-league level is mental, psychological or emotional?’ And in talking with lots of players, their number was between 75 and 90 percent.”
Of course athletic ability is part of it, but baseball players, especially, need more than ability alone. Managers and coaches can certainly assess talent. The questions that keep them up at night, though, have to do with the players’ heads and hearts. Will they have the inner fire needed to drive them to overachieve? Will they be good in the clutch? Are they injury prone? Are they too selfish to be team players? Can they be aggressive enough, without fouling out? Will they concentrate on improving their weak areas? And, how coachable are they?